We have reached the quarter point of the Celtics, Covid filled, 72 game regular season. The Celtics sit just two games above .500 and begin a 5 games in 7 nights West Coast swing that begins tonight against the Warriors.
The Celtics first quarter of the season has been consistently inconsistent. Very rarely have they had the same roster on floor together for two games in a row. They had to postpone a week worth of games due to health and safety protocols related to Covid-19. Kemba Walker has only played in 5 games and has yet to completely look like his old self. The result has been a team searching to reclaim their defensive first identity which has been a staple of Brad Stevens coached teams. The Celtics switching defense is all about timing, repetition, and trust. Trust of your teammates and trust in the system. The shortened training camp, depleted roster, and limited practice time has stunted the defensive progress you would typically see from the Celtics at this point in the season.
Despite the slow and inconsistent start there is still plenty for Celtics fans to feel good and be optimistic about. First and foremost the Celtics have both the personal and the coaching to fix their defensive woes and their defensive potential was on display Saturday night vs. the Lakers. Young bench players like Rob Williams and Payton Pritchard have outplayed expectations and played their way into core rotation players now and going forward. The Celtics have roster flexibility in-season through the $28m traded player exemption acquired in the Gordon Hayward sign and trade. Most importantly the Celtics two young stars are playing like cornerstone franchise players through the first 18 games. If management can put quality pieces around Brown and Tatum the Celtics could contend for NBA titles for the next several years. The clock on that contention has already started.
Now to the grades:
Head of the Class
Jaylen Brown - A+
Through 18 games Jaylen Brown is putting up career numbers in points per game, assists, FG%, 3pt FG%, usage rate, points per shot attempt, FTA, FT%, and turnover rate (actually career low - which is a good thing). He has been a masterclass on the offensive end as both a scorer in transition and in the half-court. His midrange game is one of the very best in the NBA, he still scares the ever living shit out his opponents when he is in transition, and he can shoot the three on the catch or off the dribble. In addition to his scoring he has become one of the Celtics top playmakers. His ball-handling which was once high and loose, and is now low and tight, has added fluidity to his game that allows him to see the whole floor and facilitate for his teammates.
Jaylen is still one the top wing defenders in the game with the ability to switch 1-5 with varying levels of success. He is also growing into the Celtics leader both on and off the floor - fans got a glimpse of this recently when he was mic'd up on ESPN. Brown wasn't just raining encouragement down on his teammates he was giving vocal instructions on the defensive end - showing that he is fully aware of not just his assignments but of his teammates as well. With Smart out for at least 2 weeks Brown's leadership and command of the Celtics defensive system will be relied on like never before.
When the season started the question surrounding Jaylen Brown centered around whether he would make his first All-Star game. The stakes have changed since then and the question we should be asking now is whether Brown can continue at an ALL-NBA level?
Jayson Tatum - A
Tatum has established himself as one of the top prolific scorers and top two way players in the game. Still only 19 (kidding 22) Tatum possesses the size, skill, and intangibles that every NBA front office executive dreams about. He is, in my esteemed opinion, the single best transaction that Danny Ainge has made as the Celtics GM. Like Brown - Tatum is putting up career highs across the board in PPG, Asts, Rebs, FG%, 3FG%, Usage, Point per shot attempt, and more.
What separates Tatum from Brown though his ability to raise up Celtics bench lineups. The bench for the Celtics have been fairly inconsistent in the level of play, and it typically breaks down like this: Bench with Tatum = Good, Bench Without Tatum = Bad. Through 930 possessions the Celtics are a plus 7.2 pts per 100 possessions with Tatum on the court. Consider this though Tatum has played 206 possessions with the Celtics double big lineup that lineup is averaging -6.6 points per 100poss. The other 724 possessions Tatum has been on the floor he is a plus 21.6 per 100poss. Only the Stevens double big lineup has been able to stop Tatum from leading winning basketball this season.
Tatum has also shown the clutch gene this season by converting two Celtics game winners in the final moments of games. The only reason he receives an A and not an A+ is because he missed a handful of games due to Covid protocols. Tatum continues to establish himself as a cornerstone franchise player.
Good, but not great
Marcus Smart B+
Marcus has been steady as he goes as the top playmaking guard for the Celtics through the first 18 games of the season. He has generally made the right play and is still very underrated as both a ball handler and a passer. His 6.1 apg 13.1 ppg are both career highs and his 3:1 assist to turnover rate is very respectable. He also has great chemistry with Jaylen Brown as Smart has assisted on 45% of Jaylen's made field goals this season. And although there has been some slippage this season on the defensive end - Smart continues to be a top-flight defender.
His shooting woes are still an issue. Marcus is shooting career highs from the corner 3's and is percentgley one of the best mid-range shooters in the game. The problem is he is well below league average from everywhere else on the floor - including only 37% at the rim which puts him at the bottom 4 percentile in the league. Smart's durability as in past season continues to be an issue too - as he will now miss at 2-3 weeks with a calf strain.
Daniel Theis B
If Theis full season was like his last handful of games he would be a straight A student. Over the last six games Theis has averaged 14.1ppg, 5rpg, 7-11 from 3, shooting 62% from the field, and playing high level defense. Much of this has coincided with Brad going away from the double big lineup and letting Theis play more of the Center spot like he did last year.
Theis struggled early and often this season when he was asked to play the four. He was clearly uncomfortable with having to play the stretch 4 on offense and having to cover quicker and faster guys on the perimeter. His foul percentage has gone down this season but still remains in the top 40% in fouls called.
Rob Williams B
Williams is by far and away having the best season of young professional career and is making his impact felt on both ends of the court. The numbers are actually eye-popping. Williams is in at least the top 95 percentile of his position in the following statistical categories: effective field goal shooting, at the rim shots and mid range jumpers (granted not many), block percentage, steal percentage, and offensive rebounding percentage.
Williams biggest issue is that he is not getting on the floor enough. He came into the season firmly behind both Theis and Thompson on the depth chart and although he may have passed Thompson he is still not getting big minutes. Part of this is by design as these shorter stints on the floor seem to be getting the maximum effort and result out of Williams. The main culprit is that Williams continues to have head scratching moments on the court - either a missed defensive assignment or a carless pass off of a defensive rebound that leads to points the other way.
Semi Ojeleye B
Ojeleye's numbers don't jump off the page (5.3 ppg, 40% FG, .362 from 3), but he has provided consistent floor spacing off the bench to allow Boston's playmakers to work and plays consistent relatively mistake free defense. His play has tailed off recently, but on the whole Semi has been one of the more reliable players off the bench.
Semi still has clear limitations to his game. Offensively he is nothing more than a spot up three point shooter with very little playmaking ability. On defense he is solid and can be relied on to play good positional defense, but he is defunct of any playmaking ability - through 284 minutes Semi has 1 combined steal and block . The B grade is perhaps a bit generous but he does provide Tatum and Brown with one of the few floor spreaders to which to work with - which holds important value.
Payton Pritchard B
Pritchard's grade would be higher if not for missing the last 4 games (will be 5 after tonight's game). It's tough to knock a guy for an injury but as they say availability is an ability. Pritchard might be the most pleasant surprise so far this season. Pritchard has had an effective field goal percentage of just under 60% and has shot a respectable 43% percent from beyond the arc. Even more importantly he has provided Brad Stevens with an additional ball handler and playmaker off the bench. Additionally, Pritchard has been the Celtics best guard at applying full court ball pressure on the opposing team's point guards. He has looked like a steal as the 26th pick of the draft and has the appearance of a guy who is going to play for a long time in the league. (Fun fact Payton Pritchard is one year older than Jayson Tatum)
Javonte Green C+
Green is an electric leaper and athlete and a limited offensive basketball player. The Celtics have limited wing depth that has forced a player like Green into situations that he is not really equipped to handle. Green is just a 25% shooter from distance and although he has a dynamic first step and explosive burst - he is nothing more than a straight line driver that lacks the ability to work in traffic. Green does offer an average to above average defender off the bench with the ability to make plays.
Green has given the Celtics what he is capable of, but that might not be enough. If the Celtics make a move with TPE during the season, Green's roster spot could be jeopardy.
Grant Williams C+
If grades were handed out ten days ago then Grant would be more in line for a D. In 3 of the last 4 games Willams has been a solid contributor to the team and has found himself on the floor as part of Brad Stevens' closing lineup. The one game Grant wasn't on the floor was coach's DNP against the Lakers on Saturday night. Grant's best position for the Celtics might be as a small ball 5, but his recent stretch has seen playing much more of the stretch 4. The Celtics would love to see Williams continue to thrive as the stretch 4. Williams provides the Celtics with a versatile defender that can switch 1-5, but he needs to continue to make the catch and shoot 3 to ensure he stays on the floor. Through Williams first 10 games played he wasn't doing that nearly enough - hitting just 7 for 22 from 3, and to compound matters Williams was carrying his struggles from offense over to the defensive end.
Over the last six games Grant has shot 8-11 from 3 for a red hot 72% and on the season he is now shooting 45% from distance. Grant's ability to shoot the 3 can unlock the Celtics offense in so many different ways, and it allows Stevens to keep one of his most versatile defenders on the floor.
The Just Ok Club
Jeff Teague C-
I really want to give Teague a lower grade. The eyeball test shows a player who has lost the burst and speed that made him an offensive weapon in this league. He seems to dribble the air out of the ball, has inexplicable turnovers at the worst possible times, his floater is an absolute adventure, he refuses to throw the lob pass, and at times seems overwhelmed on defense. He is shooting sub 30% from 2 and his effective field goal percentage is only at 38%.
But...he is shooting north of 40% from 3 and his advanced stats are somehow (weirdly) amongst the best on the team. His on/off numbers (+9.9) are second to only Payton Pritchard (+10.3) and he is on the floor with some the Celtics best statistical 5 man lineups. However, the advanced numbers in this case are deceiving. Teague has very seldomly been on the floor with Celtics two big lineup which has statistically been a nightmare. And he is often on the floor with a lineup anchored by Jayson Tatum and host of shooters which should bolster any league average point guards numbers. At the end of the day he is exactly what the Celtics paid for - a minimum salary guy who might help you sometimes, but is better off at the very end of you bench.
Tristan Thompson D-
There is still reason to be hopeful that Thompson will regain some of his old form and salvage the fact that Ainge spent the Celtics full MLE on him last offseason. Frankly, the guy that was advertised to the Celtics has not existed thus far this season. Thompson looks at least a step slow everywhere on the court. What made him so valuable for years in Cleveland was his ability as a Center to switch 2-5 . He had tremendous foot speed and quickness to stay with smaller athletic players. That foot speed and ability to switch currently does not exist. On top of that Thompson has struggled finishing at the rim for the Celtics, shooting sub 50% which ranks him in the bottom 10% for Centers. He has lacked the lift to finish dunks and put-backs with the same authority that he did in Cleveland.
Thompson missed the start of camp with a bad wheel and seems to still be working himself back into shape. It wouldn't be the first time in the history of the league for a veteran to find his groove post-All Start break and for the stretch run. As things stand now, the current rendition of the Thompson isn't good enough and you have to wonder how long the Celtics can continue to give minutes to him over Theis, Rob Williams, and Grant Williams.
Tacko Fall, Tremont Waters, Carsen Edwards, Aaron Nesmith, Romeo Langford - INC.
We just have not seen enough of these five players to render a fair grade for their performance. The good news is that four of the players have show glimpses of good play in limited opportunities thus far this season. Fall, Waters, Edwards, and Nesmith will probably have additional opportunities this season due to Covid and injuries. Stevens should have some level of confidence that if called upon they can each give you league average play for short stints. Once Langford returns from his wrist injury it is conceivable that he becomes a fixture in the Celtics rotations.
One of the most important players in this group for the Celtics going forward is Aaron Nesmith. Nesmith has been a health scratch in 9 or the Celtics first 18 games played, but he has shown some recent signs of life. Over a two game span against the Cavs and Bulls, Nesmith played a combined 36 minutes and shot 6-10 from distance. He also shows the athletic ability and effort to be a decent NBA defender (he still has a way to go though). Celtics fans need to patience with Nesmith. Prolific shooters don't grow on trees and if Nesmith figures it out then the Celtics will have a cost controlled shooter for the next several years.
Management and Coaching
Brad Stevens B
Things have been far from perfect for the Celtics, but on the whole the Coach has done a nice job of weathering difficult circumstances that have arisen from injuries and Covid-19. He still continues to find ways to put together lineups and actions on offense that give the allusion that the Celtics have more shooting and talent on the floor than it really does. By doing so it has opened up driving lanes for his two superstars to go to work. The Celtics have not been quite as good on defense as they have been in the past years, but they are still own the 10th ranked defense in the league.
My biggest quibble with Stevens is his continued reliance on the two big lineup which has up until recently been not good. He also appears to give veterans like Thompson and Teague entirely too much rope. Both of these decisions seem to have the longterm outlook of this season in mind. By going to the 2 big early this season it allowed for Stevens to find a more seamless way to get Rob Williams the rotation minutes he needs, and you hope that sticking with the vets will pay dividend in a big playoff moment.
Danny Ainge - D
I was tempted to give an incomplete here because of the TPE and what he can still do at the trade- deadline, but this grade is for his offseason and the first quarter of the season. The most important development for the Celtics has been an overwhelming success - the Jay's growth have put them amongst the best duos in the NBA and has put the C's in position to contend for years to come. The rest offseason is looking like a complete disaster.
The Celtics seemed to have been gotten caught flat footed that Hayward was leaving - which is concerning. You would hope that the organization would have a better sense about what thier players priorities are, and it is clear now that Hayward's priority was to be a more central figure in a team's offense. The Hayward dilemma potentially cost the Celtics a bigger return for Hayward (C's could of began shopping his at last years trade deadline) and slowed he process of the Celtics moving on to other free agents this past offseason. If they knew Hayward was gone could they tried to prioritized a big wing like Jae Crowder with the full MLE, or have been more active on the sign and trade front?
You also have to question the logic of spending the full MLE on the least important position on the court. Other productive players like Saric, Holiday, Connaghton, and Derrick Jones Jr. were all averrable for the same price or less.
There are some positives - it looks like Danny found a steal in the draft with Pritchard and I'm still bullish on Nesmith's future in the league. He also managed to get 28 million dollar TPE that looms large over this current season and perhaps seasons to come. You can read more about that: here
The good news is that these are only quarter grades and there stands a very good chance that both the construction of this roster and the team's play on the court will change in significant ways between now and the palyoffs.